Normally when the Oscar list comes out, I’m outraged at the massive, inexplicable snubs. Most egregiously of which have recently been in the music categories when the Academy didn’t even nominate the Golden Globe-winner for Best Song, “The Wrestler” by Bruce Springsteen, nor Clint Mansell’s gorgeous score to The Fountain.
This year, with the Best Picture race open to 10 films – although those extra five most likely have little-to-no chance of winning – allowing for the recognition of smaller films that have gotten high critical praise but might not have grabbed as much coin at the box office, the one major snub seems to be relegated to Best Director, a field that surprisingly leaves out Christopher Nolan.
And unlike last year when Avatar was the front-runner in just about every category in which it was nominated (which was many), there isn’t that same sense of domination this year. Arguably The King’s Speech has the most momentum coming out of the preceding awards shows, but should it not win, it won’t be the same type of shock as last year’s ceremony where The Hurt Locker took top honors.
So, without further ado, here are my humble picks for Oscar winners this year. I’m also including who I would prefer to see the golden statue go to. Let’s see how I do:
Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
127 Hours
Winter’s Bone
The Social Network
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Toy Story 3
True Grit
To be honest, I think these are all strong options for the top honor of the night. Inception‘s originality blew me away last summer, while The Kids Are All Right and True Grit felt like the kind of movies that have instant re-watchable appeal. But this will be the crowning achievement for a stellar night for The King’s Speech.
Leading Actor
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Colin Firth has too much momentum to be overtaken by any of the other nominees. Bridges was incredible as Rooster Cogburn but I don’t see him pulling a Tom Hanks on this one. And I dig that Franco got a nomination – carrying a film by one’s self is no easy feat. Plus the guy has major chops, pulling off both mainstream and independent films, switching effortlessly between comedy and drama. He’s likely to win one someday, just not tonight.
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Personally I loved John Hawkes. Ruffalo was solid as he always is. And while I was one of the few who was very underwhelmed by The Town, I thought that Renner’s one scene where he happened upon Ben Affleck and Rebecca Hall having lunch outside was enough to get him nominated alone – but not enough to topple Bale.
Leading Actress
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Natalie Portman was incredible. I loved Bening’s performance and thought that Lawrence completely embodied her role. But this one is Portman’s, deservedly.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
I’m going for the upset here with Bonham Carter taking the “W” over favorite Melissa Leo, whose self-promotion will hurt her in the eyes of the Academy. Plus Bonham Carter has been an incredible, daring actress throughout her career. That said: I think the best performance in this group was Weaver. Her performance was utterly mesmerizing – best of the year.
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Does Pixar ever lose? Plus it was one of the few animated films to mine some serious drama and laughs – honestly, this movie created genuine peril for its characters and we believed every single moment of it. That’s well-done no matter what genre you’re working with.
Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit
Speech could take this one, but I’m going with the purely mediocre film getting the ability to say “Oscar-winner” on its next DVD release.
Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
It’s s crime that Roger Deakins has been nominated eight times so far (before this one) and not yet won. He even had a double-nod in 2007 and still couldn’t pull out the “W.” I think he gets it this time around, deservedly so.
Directing
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
David Fincher – The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit
Fincher’s ability to mix his technical expertise through innovative use of CGI and new cameras along with getting stellar performances from the entire ensemble earns him this award. Plus this is the guy who did Seven, Fight Club, and Zodiac. The guy is a monster filmmaker. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hooper takes this if Speech ends up pulling a Titanic.
Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Sorkin has this one in the bag. Who knew when you heard about “The Facebook Movie” that it’d end up being that ridiculously entertaining?
Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The good money is on Speech continuing its roll; although Inception deserves this one, in my opinion.
Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
This is a tough one. But I’m going with Banksy on this one – it allows the Academy to support the art world as well as the liberal politics behind the film. Win-win. Plus that means we get to see what Banksy wears to keep his anonymous charade going.
Documentary Short
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
Haven’t seen any of these. Just a shot in the dark.
Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Another dark horse, I think Swan takes this award. The film moved so briskly, keeping it visually mind-blowing throughout. When you can make ballet seem suspenseful and heart-pounding to everyone – even guys who don’t know a thing about ballet – you’ve done something right.
Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)
I’m going with the Danes on this one.
Makeup
Barney’s Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
If you don’t know how much I love werewolves, you don’t know me very well yet.
Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Going with Speech again here. Never count out British period pieces when it comes to costumes.
Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
I think Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross take this one. Although, I think Zimmer is just as deserving. Then again, I think he’s always deserving.
Original Song
“Coming Home” – Country Strong
“I See the Light” – Tangled
“If I Rise” - 127 Hours
“We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3
Never underestimate the power of country music; although, I think 127 Hours gets a win here.
Animated Short Film
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary
Going out on a limb on this one – picking against the Pixar and DreamWorks behemoths.
Live Action Short Film
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
Sound Mixing
Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
It wouldn’t be the Oscars without a Clint Eastwood movie getting at least one nod. But, I think Inception rakes in all of the major technical awards.
And now it’s your chance. Drop your picks in the comments below and let’s see who gets it right.
Photo courtesy of Loren Javier’s Flickr Photostream.
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